Good Luck, Buck

So my beloved Baltimore Orioles, mired in last place with the worst record in all of Major League Baseball, announced yesterday that they have hired ESPN analyst and previous Yankees, Diamondbacks, and Rangers manager Buck Showalter as their new manager. Showalter replaces interim manager Juan Samuel, who took over the club after skipper Dave Trembley was fired in June.

It's no secret Showalter faces an extremely arduous task. Not only do the Orioles have the worst record in baseball, they haven't made the playoffs since 1997 and they play in by far the toughest division in baseball, playing upwards of 50 games annually against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays. The Orioles haven't even really been competitive for the past decade, their lone decent year in 2005, when they entered the All-Star Break second in the AL East and just 2 games behind Boston, but imploded in a disastrous second half marked by Rafael Palmeiro's suspension for steroid use just days after collecting his 3,000th career hit.

So what can Showalter do to right the ship in Baltimore? Here are a couple ways I think he could potentially turn things around (though it'll take a lot more than just a couple changes to fix this train wreck):

1. Let the kids play

This point should be rather obvious. The Orioles have nothing to play for this season. This is a time to let all the young guys play consistently at the big league level and see what they can do.

The Orioles have had a lot of hyped young hitters and pitchers debut in the past year and a half, and they've both achieved varying degrees of success and seen varying amounts of playing time.

This year has been rough on most of the Os' young hitters. Nolan Reimold looked like the solution to the revolving door in left field last year, hitting .279 with 15 HR and 45 RBI in 2/3 of a season last year. But Reimold regressed this spring and was demoted to AAA Norfolk, where he's only hitting .227 in 64 games. Meanwhile Felix Pie played well enough when healthy last season that the Orioles entertained thoughts of putting him in left and moving Reimold to first base or DH. But Pie has again spent most of 2010 on the DL. Catcher Matt Wieters has failed to live up to big (probably too big) expectations and is hitting just .248, though he did hit two home runs on Monday for his first career multi-homer outing. Third baseman Josh Bell has shuffled back and forth between the bigs and AAA the last month and seen sporadic playing time in Baltimore, though yesterday's trade of Miguel Tejada to San Diego should open the door for him to see more playing time.

Despite their struggles, now is the time for these young guys to get their hacks. Leaving them on the bench or in AAA only hurts their confidence. The absence of leadoff hitter Brian Roberts for almost the entire season has clearly had an effect on the entire offense. But Roberts is finally back and Showalter should start trotting out a team that could potentially look like 2011's Opening Day lineup card. As much as I appreciate the contributions of guys like Ty Wigginton and Corey Patterson, they don't figure into the organization's long-term plans. It's more important for guys like Reimold, Pie, Bell and Wieters to get the repetitions (and maybe a few more guys like Brandon Snyder deserve a September call-up).

The youth movement has been even tougher this year from a pitching perspective. Brad Bergeson, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, and Jake Arrieta are a combined 10-27 and boast respective ERAs of 6.95, 5.46, 7.92, and 5.40. All of them except Matusz have shuffled between Norfolk and Baltimore and Bergeson even had a brief stint in the bullpen. Their confidences are down and they've had a lot of bad luck. It would be easy to say Showalter should consider shelving one or more for the rest of the year. But instead I think that Showalter should end all the instability in the rotation and just let the guys all know they're going to continue to get to pitch without fear of demotion. Expand the rotation to six guys (with veterans Kevin Millwood and Jeremy Guthrie) so that everyone can pitch while also avoiding overworking the young arms.

2. Trust Andy MacPhail

Buck Showalter has a history of quarreling with management during his past stints as a manager. In both New York and Arizona, he was fired despite successful tenures in part due to conflicts with management only to watch his former team win the World Series the following season. Orioles owner Peter Angelos has also had many disagreements over the years with his managers and front office executives. But Angelos in recent years has turned over personnel oversight to general manager Andy MacPhail and allowed him to work independently.

MacPhail for the most part has done an excellent job as general manager. In his first year he moved Miguel Tejada and Erik Bedard to Houston and Seattle, respectively, for strong five player packages. For Tejada he got the powerful left-handed bat of Luke Scott and lefty pitcher Troy Patton, currently in AAA. The Bedard deal was arguably the organization's best trade since stealing Frank Robinson from the Reds for Milt Pappas and assorted junk in 1966. MacPhail reeled in Adam Jones, already a Gold Glover and All-Star in center field at just 25, and the aforementioned Chris Tillman (who's still just 22). In addition, the Orioles got closer George Sherrill who made the All-Star team in 2008 and last summer MacPhail shipped to the Dodgers for Josh Bell and hyped minor league pitcher Steve Johnson.

Showalter needs to put trust in MacPhail to continue to make smart moves rather than creating a power struggle over personnel decisions. Showalter has proven he can manage a baseball team and MacPhail has proven he can assemble talent. If the two can coexist then good things should come of their relationship.

3. Show some fire

This may sound bizarre, but I want to see my manager arguing calls and every now and then getting ejected from games. Former manager Dave Trembley rarely argued calls and even when he did he appeared to do so half-heartedly. I'm not saying I want my manager to act like this, but a little passion can show your players that you have their back and gain their respect. This

wonderful recent Sports Illustrated feature on Bobby Cox

suggests how the occasional well-timed ejection can be the perfect catalyst for success. Heck, check out this list of the top ten most ejected managers between 2004 and midway through 2009. Seven of the managers on the list have won a World Series and two more have managed in the October Classic. The only two on the list who haven't (yes I know that's 11 guys on a top-ten list, there's a tie for 10th place) are Eric Wedge and Ron Gardenhire and even Gardenhire has been highly successful with the small-market Minnesota Twins over the past decade, leading the Twins to the playoffs 5 of his 8 seasons in charge. And of course, the greatest manager in Orioles history is the fiery Earl Weaver, whose tantrums are the stuff of lore in Baltimore.

Strange as it may sound, there seems to be a strong correlation between frequent ejections and success for major league managers. For that reason, I hope we see a good amount of Buck Showalter doing exactly what he's doing in the picture above this post in an Orioles uniform.

Team USA Hoops Roster Analysis

It's late July, which means not much is going on in the sports world, especially from my perspective. There's nothing less interesting than pre-NFL training camp "stories", whether they concern rookies, veterans, or senior citizens (although stories like this are at least mildly amusing). I would care more about baseball if my beloved Orioles weren't utterly inept. So given my lack of excitement about those sports, I'm actually more interested in basketball right now, particularly the ongoing tryouts for who will represent Team USA at the 2010 FIBA World Championships.

All 12 members of the "Redeem Team" (a lousy nickname) that won the gold medal at the 2008 Beijing Olympics have decided to sit this one out. So without Kobe, Dwight Howard, or the new Miami Heat trio, the 2010 version of the USA national team will be comprised of a younger group of players when it travels to Turkey next month under the leadership of Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski.

Tryouts are already underway, and today the roster was whittled from 19 to 15 players. For the most part, the cuts were not surprising. Washington Wizards center JaVale McGee was a surprise invite in the first place, coming to camp thanks to a strong summer league and a lack of depth in the post in the national team pool. Sacramento Kings guard Tyreke Evans, the reigning NBA Rookie of the Year, had an ankle injury that limited him in tryouts. My friend Zach and the seven other Charlotte Bobcats fans are sad to hear that forward Gerald Wallace was let go, but he's not a good shooter (shooting is a premium at the international level) and was outplayed by the other guys at his position. Meanwhile, myself and the four other Memphis Grizzlies fans mourn the cut of the great Grizzlies guard Ovinton J'Anthony (O.J.) Mayo, a victim of the numbers game in the backcourt.

The remaining 15 players will continue to battle in an attempt to make the final roster of 12 that will head to Turkey August 28th. Here's a breakdown of each remaining player from 1 to 15 (1 being the most likely to make the team and 15 the least likely).

1. Kevin Durant, guard/forward, Oklahoma City Thunder

The reigning NBA scoring champion, the 6-9, 21 year old phenom is hands down the best player in camp. At his size and with his skill set, he can play the 2-4 and would probably even excel if Coach K elected to play him at point guard or center.

2. Chauncey Billups, guard, Denver Nuggets

Billups probably isn't the best point guard in camp, but he's this high because he is a much needed veteran presence on an otherwise inexperienced team. He's also got an NBA Finals MVP, something no one else in camp can say.

3. Derrick Rose, guard, Chicago Bulls

The 2009 NBA Rookie of the Year is probably the second-best player in camp behind Durant. Even if another point guard like Billups is on the floor at the same time, Team USA will run their offense through Rose.

4. Rudy Gay, forward, Memphis Grizzlies

Even though O.J. Mayo is gone, I can find solace in the fact that the other member of the Grizz in camp is all but a lock to make the squad. The highflying scorer (see the picture) has a fat new contract and led the Durant and Rose-less Blue squad with 23 points in an intrasquad scrimmage Saturday night in Vegas. His versatility means Coach K can deploy him at three positions.

5. Lamar Odom, forward, Los Angeles Lakers

The only other veteran presence besides Billups. He's a valuable member of the two-time defending NBA champions and has the most international experience of any player in camp, having been on the squad that won the bronze medal at the 2004 Olympics in Athens. Although he typically plays power forward, Coach K gave him some run at center in the aforementioned scrimmage.

6. Tyson Chandler, center, Dallas Mavericks

While Team USA has lots of athletes with size, they are low on natural big men. Chandler's 7-1 frame and rebounding ability means he will probably make the squad and play big minutes by default. It will be interesting to see how he plays against generally smaller, more perimeter-oriented international competition.

7. Stephen Curry, guard, Golden State Warriors

As a Davidson grad I may be a bit of a homer putting him this high, but Steph Curry's game is made for the international level. He is the best shooter in camp and his three-ball will be a valuable weapon in busting the pesky zones most of the European teams typically employ. He also can play both point and shooting guard, another big plus. And the coach is also his little brother's college coach, if that means anything.

8. Kevin Love, forward, Minnesota Timberwolves

Another guy whose game adapts well to the international level. He's a superb passer and a good shooting big man with three-point range, but he also is a tenacious rebounder.

9. Russell Westbrook, guard, Oklahoma City Thunder

Westbrook, like Curry, can play both guard positions. He's an athletic freak and his speed will be a major asset. It also doesn't hurt that he's teammates with Durant and knows how to get the ball in the hands of Team USA's clear star.

10. Rajon Rondo, guard, Boston Celtics

If I were ranking these guys by NBA success, Rondo would be much higher. He's a walking triple-double at point guard and already has played in two NBA Finals. However, he's hurt by the fact that he is a poor outside shooter and is less versatile than guys like Westbrook and Curry.

11. Brook Lopez, center, New Jersey Nets

Lopez has been disappointing in camp and has battled some health issues, but he'll probably make the squad because of his size and the overall lack of depth in the post. If healthy, he's as good a rebounder as Love and Chandler and a better low post scorer than either.

12. Danny Granger, forward, Indiana Pacers

Either Granger or Andre Iguodala will likely make the final squad as a swingman. Granger has had a weaker camp, but has slightly more size and is a better three-point shooter historically. I give him the slightest edge.

13. Andre Iguodala, forward, Philadelphia 76ers

On the other hand, Iguodala is more athletic than Granger and had a strong performance in the recent scrimmage, scoring 17 points and going 3-3 from behind the arc. That showing coupled with Granger's minor calf strain suffered last week means it would not surprise me if Iguodala gets the nod over Granger.

14. Jeff Green, forward, Oklahoma City Thunder

Green is not a true back-to-basket post and is unlikely to make the squad over Chandler or Lopez. While he is as good an outside shooter as Kevin Love, Love is a much stronger rebounder. Given the plethora of talent on the wing in camp, there just doesn't appear to be room for Green on the final squad.

15. Eric Gordon, guard, Los Angeles Clippers

Gordon is a pure shooting guard and he's not as good a shooter as Curry. The other guards are all better ball-handlers. The Grizzlies homer in me sees no discernable difference between him and O.J. Mayo. But no matter, Gordon probably will only last with the squad a little longer than Mayo.

Introduction

I've thought about doing a blog with my thoughts about sports for a couple years. In theory, I should be able to pull it off.

For pretty much my whole life, I teetered between extremely passionate but still somewhat socially acceptable sports fandom and the dark and unhealthy abyss of utter sports nerdity. And while I may not be the next Homer, I've had a very good education and always done well on my various papers and essays despite frequently waiting until the last minuate to actually write them. But every time I think about starting a blog, I inevitably end up frustrated with coming up with ideas or what I write when I do have an idea and I end up just canning the whole blog.

But now, since I have an inordinate amoung of free time on my hands as a jobless recent college grad, I might as well give it a shot. So I'm going to make myself post here something at least once a day. Hopefully it will at least force me to write and maybe even a couple people will actually read this.